AFIR 2011 19-22 June - Madrid, Spain
 Hosted by Instituto de Actuarios Españoles Madrid
Welcome Papers Programme Committees Accomodation +Info Registration   English Français Español  
AFIR


Final Programme

  Sun 19/06 Mon 20/06 Tue 21/06 Wed 22/06
08:30-09:30   Formal Opening Parallel Sessions 4 +info Parallel Sessions 6 +info
09:30-10:00   breakfast breakfast breakfast
10:00-11:00   Plenary Session 1  +info Plenary Session 4  +info Plenary Session 6  +info
11:00-12:00   Parallel Sessions 1 +info Parallel Sessions 5 +info Parallel Sessions 7 +info
12:00-13:00 ASTIN Committee meeting and lunch Plenary Session 2  +info Plenary Session 5  +info Plenary Session 7  +info
13:00-14:00 lunch lunch lunch
14:00-15:00 Parallel Sessions 2 +info afternoon excursion
dinner included
+info
Plenary Session 8  +info
15:00-16:00 Plenary Session 3  +info Plenary Session 9  +info
16:00-16:30 break break
16:30-17:30 Help Desk &
Registration
Parallel Sessions 3 +info
Speakers Corner
Parallel Sessions 8 +info
Speakers Corner
17:30-18:30 ASTIN
General Assembly
Parallel Sessions 9 +info
Speakers Corner
18:30-19:30 Closing
20:30-23:30 Welcome Reception   Gala Dinner



Monday 20

Plenary Session 1 @ 10:00 - 11:00 : Alejandro Balbás
    Risk Measures and the Role of Derivatives in Risk Minimization

Parallel Session 1 @ 11:00 - 12:00

ASTINAuditoriumRisk Margin for a Non-Life Insurance Run-Off
Mario V. Wuthrich , Paul Embrechts , Andreas Tsanakasy
  Development Pattern and Prediction Error for the Stochastic Bornhuetter-Ferguson Claims Reserving Method
Annina Saluz, Alois Gisler, Mario Wuthrich
  Bornhuetter-Ferguson Reserving Method with Repricing
Alois Gisler, Annina Saluz, Mario V. Wüthrich
 Castellana 1Pricing in Microinsurance Markets
Christian Biener
AFIRCastellana 2MARKET-CONSISTENT REPLICATION OF INSURANCE LIABILITIES IN A MULTIPLE RISK ECONOMY
Werner Hürlimann
  The mechanics of actuarial and risk management – role of actuarial and risk management in the financial services sector
Martin Tarusenga
  To hedge or not o hedge that is the problem
Ricardo A. Tagliafichi

Plenary Session 2 @ 12:00 - 13:00 : Paul Embrechts
    Risk Aggregation and Diversification: Issues and Pitfalls

Parallel Session 2 @ 14:00 - 15:00

ASTINAuditoriumExplicit ruin formulas for models with dependence among risks
Corina Constantinescu
  On the distortion of a copula and its margins
Emiliano A. Valdez, Yugu Xiao
  Simulation of High-Dimensional T-Student Copula
Gerard Torrent
 Castellana 1CLIMATE CHANGE AND RESOURCE DEPLETION: THE CHALLENGE FOR ACTUARIES (REVIEW OF LITERATURE)
S.D. Baxter, O.D. Bettis, S.J.R. Brimblecombe, C.A. Fitzgerald, Dr. S. Harrison, V.J. Hodge, B.P. Maher, P.G. Meins, A. Mookerjee. L. Perroy and N.G. Silver
  The financial crisis – risk transfer, insurance layers and (no?) reinsurance culture
Michael Fackler
AFIRCastellana 2The Impact of Policyholder Behavior on Pricing, Hedging, and Hedge Efficiency of Withdrawal Benefit Guarantees in Variable Annuities
Alexander Kling, Frederik Ruez, Jochen Ruß
  The Impact of Introducing Insurance Guaranty Schemes on Pricing and Capital Structures
Hato Schmeiser, Joël Wagner
  Policyholder Exercise Behavior for Variable Annuities including Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefits
Thorsten Moenig

Plenary Session 3 @ 15:00 - 16:00 : Pierre Devolder
    Solvency Measure for Pension Liabilities : Time, Inflation and Longevity Aspects

Parallel Session 3 @ 16:30 - 17:30

AFIRAuditoriumMarket Consistent Valuation of Long Term Insurance Portfolios
Jan-Philipp Schmidt
  Cash flow-based valuation of insurance liabilities
Teemu Pennanen
ASTINCastellana 1Multirisks models in discrete time
Anna Castañer, M. Mercè Claramunt, Claude Lefèvre
  Actuarial Applications of Distance-Based Generalized Linear Models
Eva Boj, Josep Fortiana, Anna Esteve, M. M. Claramunt, T. Costa
  Index of Ranking for bonus-malus system
José A. Álvarez Jareño, Prudencio Muñiz Rodríguez
 Castellana 2The Retrospective Testing of Stochastic Loss Reserve Models
Glenn Meyers, Peng Shi
  Diagonal effects in claims reserving
Niels Rietdorf, Anders Hedegaard Jessen
  Provisions for loss adjustment expenses
Niels Rietdorf, Anders Hedegaard Jessen

Tuesday 21

Parallel Session 4 @ 08:30 - 09:30

AFIRAuditoriumADJUSTED FORWARD RATES WITHIN TWO THEORY OF INTEREST RATES
Joseba Iñaki De La Peña Esteban, Eduardo Trigo Martínez, Rafael Moreno Ruiz, Iván Iturricastillo Plazaola
  Financial Planning and Risk-Return Profiles
Stefan Graf, Alexander Kling, Jochen Russ
ASTINCastellana 1Implementing a Solvency II internal model: Bayesian stochastic reserving and Parameter Estimation
MARCO PIRRA, SALVATORE FORTE, MATTEO IALENTI
  Calendar Year Reserves in the Multivariate Additive Model
Alexander Ludwig, Klaus D. Schmidt
  A Model Study about the Applicability of the Chain Ladder Method
Magda Schiegl
AFIRCastellana 2Heterogeneity: measure integrating risk of estimate in the case of a modeling of the observable factors
Frédéric Planchet, Aymric Kamega
  Pricing S-forwards via the Risk Margin under Solvency II
Susanna Levantesi, Massimiliano Menzietti, Tiziana Torri
  Bargaining for Over-The-Counter Risk Redistributions: The Case of Longevity Risk
Tim Boonen, Anja De Waegenaere, Henk Norde

Plenary Session 4 @ 10:00 - 11:00 : David Wilkie
    Real-world Economic Scenario Generators

Parallel Session 5 @ 11:00 - 12:00

AFIRAuditoriumDecomposing Hedge Effectiveness in Longevity Hedges
Andrew J.G. Cairns, Kevin Dowd, David Blake, and Guy D. Coughlan
  Consistent Dynamic Affine Model for Mortality and Longevity Risk Applications
Craig Blackburn, Michael Sherris
  INVESTIGATION OF HEDGING STRATEGIES BETWEEN ASSURANCES AND ANNUITIES FOR THE PURPOSE OF MITIGATING LONGEVITY RISK
Frans Koning, Stefan Bekker
ASTINCastellana 1Non parametric approach to analyzing operational risk losses
Catalina Bolancé, Mercedes Ayuso, Montserrat Guillén
  Count Data Modeling with Multifractal Processes
Jean-Philippe Boucher, Donatien Hainaut
  Applications of convex optimization in premium rating
Dimitri Semenovich, Ian Heppell
AFIRCastellana 2PRUDENCE REVISITED: THE USE OF EXPECTED-UTILITY THEORY FOR DECISION-MAKING BY THE TRUSTEES OF A RETIREMENT FUND
Robert J. Thomson
  A Note on Life-cycle Funds
Stefan Graf
  A Joint Valuation of Premium Payment and Surrender Options in Participating Life Insurance Contracts
Hato Schmeiser, Joël Wagner

Plenary Session 5 @ 12:00 - 13:00 : David Ingram
    Choices and Choosing: ERM and Rational Adaptability

Afternoon excursion @ 14:30 - 23:00
   
Organ concert & Choir School at the Royal Monastery of San Lorenzo de El Escorial

Wednesday 22

Parallel Session 6 @ 08:30 - 09:30

AFIRAuditoriumAnalyzing Surplus Appropriation Schemes in Participating Life Insurance from the Insurer’s and the Policyholder’s Perspective
Alexander Bohnert, Nadine Gatzert
  The Impact of Mortality Risk on a Life Insurer’s Risk Situation and Risk Management
Nadine Gatzert, Hannah Wesker
  A Stochastic Mortality Model based on Smoking prevalence
Torsten Kleinow, Andrew J. G. Cairns
ASTINCastellana 1A credibility method for profitable cross-selling of insurance products
Fredrik Thuring
  On a Hierarchical Credibility Model for Quantiles
Georgios Pitselis
  Multicollinearity in credibility regression models
Andrey Kudryavtsev
 Castellana 2INSURANCE RISK ECONOMIC CAPITAL FOR EXCESS-OF-LOSS CONTRACTS WITH AN INFLATION STABILITY CLAUSE
Werner Hürlimann
  Managing exposure to reinsurance credit risk
Yuriy Krvavych
  A two-dimensional risk model with proportional reinsurance
Andrei Badescu

Plenary Session 6 @ 10:00 - 11:00 : José María Sarabia
    A General Methodology for Enriching a Family of Distributions with Applications in Insurance

Parallel Session 7 @ 11:00 - 12:00

AFIRAuditoriumTHE CAPM RECONSIDERED: TESTS IN REAL TERMS ON A SOUTH AFRICAN MARKET PORTFOLIO COMPRISING EQUITIES AND BONDS
Taryn L. Reddy, Robert J. Thomson
  ON THE ANALYTICAL EVALUATION OF THE INSURANCE MARKET RISK TARGET CAPITAL
Werner Hürlimann
ASTINCastellana 1Claims Development Result in the Paid-Incurred Chain Reserving Method
Sebastian Happ , Michael Merzy, Mario V. WuthricH
  Double Chain Ladder
María Dolores Martínez Miranda, Jens Perch Nielsen, Richard Verrall
  Double Chain Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson
María Dolores Martínez Miranda, Jens Perch Nielsen, Richard Verrall
 Castellana 2Bayesian Graduation. A Fresh View
Enrique de Alba, Ricardo Andrade
  Health care insurance pricing when the healthy and sick periods form an alternating renewal process with stochastic force of interest
Franck ADEKAMBI

Plenary Session 7 @ 12:00 - 13:00 : Jean Lemaire
    The Impact of Culture and Political Risk on Non-Life Insurance

Plenary Session 8 @ 14:00 - 15:00 : Michael Sherries
    Enterprise Risk Management, Insurer Value Maximisation and Market Frictions

Plenary Session 9 @ 15:00 - 16:00 : Jean Berthon
    Finance: To Be Ethical or Not To Be

Parallel Session 8 @ 16:30 - 17:30

AFIRAuditoriumIFRS Convergence in Japan: The Past and Present Impact for the Values in the Stock Market and Forward Looking Thoughts
Miwaka Yamashita
  Delta and Gamma Hedging of Mortality and Interest Rate Risk
Elisa Luciano, Luca Regis, Elena Vigna
  A stochastic model for the sustainable investment policy in a defined benefit pension fund
Giuseppina Cannas, Giovanni Masala, Marco Micocci
ASTINCastellana 1Multi-Year Enterprise Risk Management based on Internal Models
Dorothea Diers
  A correlation analysis for non life underwriting module SCR
Lluís Bermúdez, Antoni Ferri, Montserrat Guillén
  Sustainability of Earnings: A Framework for Quantitative Modeling of Strategy, Risk, and Value
Neil M. Bodoff
 Castellana 2Dividend problems in the dual risk model
Lourdes B. Afonso, Rui M.R. Cardoso, Alfredo D. Egídio dos Reis
  Measuring the Impact of Inflation on the undiscounted Loss Reserves
René Stephan
  Inflation and excess insurance
Michael Fackler

Parallel Session 9 @ 17:30 - 18:30

AFIRAuditoriumA COMPLETE MODEL OF GENERAL DYNAMIC IMMUNIZATION
Iván Iturricastillo Plazaola, Joseba Iñaki De La Peña Esteban, Rafael Moreno Ruiz, Eduardo Trigo Martínez
  Model Uncertainty and its Impact on Solvency Measurement in Property-Liability Insurance
Hato Schmeiser, Caroline Siegel, Joël Wagner
ASTINCastellana 1METHODOLOGY IN SIMULATION ESTIMATION OF COLLECTIVE RISK IN NON-LIFE INSURANCE
Jozef Hajnala
  Stochastic Claim Reserving Based on CRM for Solvency II Purposes
Gian Paolo Clemente, Nino Savelli
  Modelling Dependence in Insurance Claims Processes with Levy Copulas
Benjamin Avanzi, Luke C. Cassara, Bernard Wong
AFIRCastellana 2Stock vs Mutual Insurers:Who Does and Who Should Charge More
Alexander Braun, Przemyslaw Rymaszewski, Hato Schmeiser
  Hedging Mortality Risk through Portfolio Composition: A Comprehensive Risk Analysis
Nadine Gatzert, Hannah Wesker